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5 giorni fa · Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the black swan theory as a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a total surprise, has a profound significant impact, often changing the course of...
3 giorni fa · Remember that a Black Swan is relative to expectations, so if a given event is to be a potential Black Swan, its complement (in set theory terms) must necessarily be “priced in” or “factored in”; hence, the non-occurence of the Black Swan does not create surprise, and therefore does not lead to a large downside.
14 ore fa · Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions. It has applications in many fields of social science, used extensively in economics as well as in logic, systems science and computer science.
5 giorni fa · Nassim Taleb published "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" at arguably the perfect time - in April 2007, about six months before the worst financial crisis since the...
14 ore fa · Black swan events have included the rise of the internet and the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. These events disrupted supply chains, economies and societies in ways people could not imagine beforehand. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic mated with the concept of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).
3 giorni fa · In 2006, a systematic analysis by James Flynn and William Dickens showed the gap between black and white Americans to have closed dramatically during the period between 1972 and 2002, suggesting that, in their words, the "constancy of the Black-White IQ gap is a myth."
3 giorni fa · The Black Swan (Pas de deux) The iconic moment in Act III, where Prince Siegfried falls under the spell of Rothbart's daughter Odile, who by magic has been made to resemble Odette. His declaration of love to her leads directly to the ballet's final tragedy.
